Dude, Where is the Roadmap... to Peace?

George R.Ckrhushchev

Politics, as we all know, make strange bedfellows. Thanks to the electorate that is fragmented along the religious, regional, economic, ethnic, linguistic and ideological lines, this bed-hopping becomes a necessary evil to bring some sort of stability in governance. Or an unnecessary evil that leads to perpetual bickering, blackmailing and chaos.
But the political unions made in South Asia would put sex workers to shame and make former politicians who bedded those sex workers, from John Profumo to Eliot Spitzer, spinning in the political graves they dug themselves in.
No one has made dealmaking an art form more than our very own Mahinda Rajapakse. The man knows the Zen and Art of deal making that would make the self-proclaimed Dealmeister Donald Trump look like a kindergarden kid.
If Mahinda were a hormone-driven teenaged girl, he would be pregnant all the time. Simply because, when it comes to making alliances, he can't say no to any demands!
To ensure his residency at President's House, he made deals left and right. He started with the Dynamic Duo, clowns of the royal court, JVP and JHU. To survive the hung parliament, he made deals with CWC and SLMC. And their respective breakaway factions as well!
In the pretence of solving the ethnic question, he signed an MOU with the Opposition Leader-for-life Ranil, only to lure the 'democratic' faction with ministerial posts to cross the floor.
He even made a deal with the Devil himself, to the tune of 700 million rupees, promising the handover of Colonel. Then he enlisted the Colonel, promising East, to exorcise the devil out of East. Having driven the Colonel out of the equation, he was dealing with the deputy, again promising him East. Then he made another deal with Hisbullah and promised him, what else, East.
Now, imagine, at an event of any political birth delivered by him, the possibility of lining up the usual suspects for paternity tests!
There is no single political entity in Sri Lanka that hadn't signed a deal with Mahinda. Of course, with the exception of Bandaranayake dynasty whose arrogance would drive away any suitors and TNA that can only sleep with those allowed by its pimps from Wanni.
Mahinda is the only man capable of being everything for everybody.
Cash or Cabinet post? No Problemo!
North or East? Sorry, not together!
He will promise anything to anybody!

Who is he? Where is he coming from?
Loyal foot soldier on Her Majesty's Services of Queen Bee I and II, he would have gladly extended his loyalty to Crown Prince, as a trusted lieutenant, if it was not for His Royal Highness' intelligence, or lack thereof.
Family feud that has seen some palace coups and the sibling rivalry that was won by the princess, made the wait for coronation to such a long time even Prince Charles could take some comfort. Crown Prince was finally reduced to the Black Knight who refused to step aside to make way for King Arthur and was literally disarmed (and dis'legged') by the king's sword in the movie 'Monty python and the Holy Grail'.
By forcing the Crown Prince to abdicate before coronation, he thrust himself in the throne. Then, the Devil came and anointed him His Excellency. If it is not for the grace of the Devil that stopped tamils from voting, he would be languishing in the opposition benches, raising hell about human rights, press freedom, kidnappings and disappearances, all of which he is now accused of perpetrating.
Sending the Queen Bee in exile and humiliating the prince to become a loyal subject, he established the new dynasty from Ruhunu.

It's not his fault!
Well, he didn't come empty-handed. Or empty-headed. He came on the scene, projecting himself as a visionary.
If Mao and Marx can have their thoughts help igniting revolutions, why not Mahinda?
Thus we are thrust with "Mahinda Chinthanaya".
While he was a foot soldier or a lieutenant, we never heard any 'vision things'. Perhaps he didn't have any visions then. Or he saved the best for last.
We never knew where he stood on anything, until we saw that 'little book'.
Mind you, one can't blame Mahinda for everything wrong in Sri Lanka. He is not the only visionary we are blessed with. Sri Lanka has its own share of visionaries.
'Sinhala only' ceremonially triggered it all. "Aal seru thekka thenawa ape ammeh langa enawa' socialism put oil on the fire with its constitution and standardisation. Then, '8 pounds of grain from moon' Dharmista brought it to the point of no return by branding it terrorism. Then the Gramodhaya that tried to 'join them if you can't beat them' had it blown on its face. 'Sudu Nelum' that tried to tame the beast with appeasement fell flat on its face.
Forget the visonaries! Even the man without any visions (or backbone, for that matter), Ranil, tried to teach panchaseela to the tiger with his heli-rides for political and medical work, and customs-free imports as well, was rewarded with the boycott that robbed him of presidency.
This is the Lanka Mahinda inherited. And he had a vision.
Like all its predecessors, Chinthanaya is being sold to unsuspecting buyers as a cure-it-all snake oil. But unlike some of them, it lacks the free food attached to those visions. With the rice prices going through the roof, Sri Lankans don't mind a kilo or two.
It never mattered whether Sri Lankans bought into it or those who made alliances are enlightened by it.
But it became a gospel to the Dynamic Duo. Newly converted, shall we say Mahinda's witnesses, threw their long held beliefs out of the window. It came to a point where they dared Mahinda himself not deviate from his own chinthanaya.
Oh, poor Lord Buddha and Comrade Karl. They are long gone before they endure such humiliation in the hands of the clowns!

Give credit where it's due!
Despite his vision thing, Mahinda should be credited for few things as well, albeit with some caveats.
First of all, he put an end to the politics of dynasties. But he ended the Bandaranayake dynasty in the same way Premadasa ended the JR's grip on UNP, with political maneuvering and subtle threats. But Ending of one dynasty made way for another. Now he brought nepotism to unprecedented levels and his brothers made way into power through back door, making all a family affair.
Also, he should be credited for keeping the party alive during the dark days of Premadasa regime. He kept the sprit of the party alive, when the Royals are MIA, either in exile or out of sight. The measures he took might have been laughable, if not laudable. But, pot-banging and horn-honking Honky Tonky man made the party survive one of the darkest eras in Sri Lankan politics.
Then, he is the one who was able to put a stop on the appeasement of LTTE that has become a farce, The Comedy of Terrors. But the alternative he took is no better. The full scale war he is waging now continues the same path of death and destruction.

Devil made him do it!
But for some reason, he is being credited undeservedly for a few other things.
Forests felled and gallons of ink have been wasted about How the East Was Won and having Sheriff Mahinda riding into the Sunrise. It is not his brilliance, but the other man's stupidity that made this accomplishment possible.
All these years, LTTE's propaganda machinery worked overtime to spoon-feed the diaspora of the 'prophetic vision and guidance' of their National Leader that made him a 'military and political genius' and his ability to tackle India and international community that were trying to 'destroy tamils'. Of course, all the successes were attributed to him while losses were blamed on traitors.
His successes are built upon other people's foolishness and stupidity. He is simply a man whose fear for his life borders paranoia and he kills anybody who he believes might be a threat to his life. It was the other people's stupidity that made him a monster that he is. Those who had a chance to rein in him, failed or held back for reasons only known to themselves and paid with their dear lives. Leaders of India and Sri Lanka; moderate political leaders and rival miltant leaders; even his own deputy became sitting ducks. He eliminated them one after another and his victims never saw it coming.
And he was able to fool the 'educated' Jaffnaites to join or support his cult like organization and using them to fool the international community by crying foul as victims of Sinhala oppression.
Stupidity of his enemies as well as followers, and the Lady Luck catapulted him to where he is now. His enemies don't seem to have learned from their mistakes and his followers never will, But, Lady Luck did.
She might have become sick and tired of the destruction caused by her problem child.
And the tide has changed.
He made a monumental error in judgement, or an unprophetic vision, when he failed to arrest Karuna. He might have had luck with Mahathaya. But, certainly not with Karuna. He could kill anyone living thousands of miles away, but couldn't read the mind of a man sitting beside him and arrest him.
Then came the colossal mistake. His decision to throw his support behind the 'pragmatic' Mahinda, by forcing the election boycott. Neuromancing political pundits in diaspora had some 'intellectual' explanation about 'what was going in the national leader's brain'. But, simply it is the money Mahinda was offering and the thought that he can always eliminate him if Mahinda doublecrosses.
His luck ran out on him when the attempts to kill top defence officials, Sarath and Gotha, failed and they survived to take it personally to settle the score.
And the Sluice-Water-gate scandal cost him dearly. That made Mahinda a Veera Puran Appu who was ready to defend the 'human rights' of the sinhala people deprived of water, like Bush Sr worried about the Kuwaiti human rights. It gave Mahinda a reason to start the war, without being condemned by the international community.
Not even the soaring Tiger Flying Squad(ron) could lift the declining fortunes of LTTE now.
If it is not for these mistakes, Mahinda couldn't have ridden into sunrise. If LTTE leader had decided to support Ranil and kept Karuna, Mahinda might have become a footnote in Sri Lankan political history. His election as president is neither an endorsment to his vision nor a proof of his popularity. It was only made possible by the forced boycott of polls. His victory in the East couldn't have happened without Karuna's split.
So when it comes to being a president and winning the East, it is not him .
The Devil made him do it!
So much for the man with the so-called 'prophetic vision'! He never saw it coming and now we have another visionary... running amok.
There must be a reason for Mahinda calling himself "A Man of the Masses" in mahindarajabaksa.com, official site of Mahinda Rajabaksa. Because, now he is accused of mass murders, mass arrests, mass kidnappings, mass expulsions, mass media intimidation and massive corruption.
Thank God! It could have been worse. Can you imagine, if Mervyn Silva got this idea before Mahinda and had the greatness thrust upon him? Wait. There is a bright side to it. He will take transparency to a new level that everything will be live on TV. And Mervyn's Manifesto would come with 'the first shot is always free' Universal Drug Plan.

From Champion to Perpetrator
The man, who won awards for his human rights championship while in opposition, is violating the same when in power. It reminds us the dark days of Premadasa regime when he used the JVP uprising to eliminate his opponents and critics. Both men, claim to be from humble origins, seem to have a thirst for power and ready to keep themselves there at any cost.
Well! 'Ominpotent' executive presidency became impotent without the clear majority in parliament. Leaders of the small parties with the power vested on them by proportional representation exploit it to make themselves cabinet ministers and rich. When the man in power become, or about to become, powerless, he tends to resort to violent means to get it.
So Extra judicial kilings, abductions and media intimidation have become state sanctioned activities.
Then, always he has an excuse of fighting terrorism.

Roadmap to peace
Like all his predecessors, he has a roadmap to peace. The way to peace is a unitary state. But, a razon-thin majority is hardly a mandate for unitary state. With almost half of the South voting for Ranil who promised federalism and Tamils being robbed of their voting rights, Mahinda can't claim a mandate for unitary state.
A unitary state might work for a mono-ethnic country, but not for Sri Lanka.
A unitary state is not only about the territorial integrity. A unitary state should treat her citizens equal and has no second class citizens based on religion, language and ethnicity. With Buddhism as state religion and Sinhala as the official language, and the presidency limited only to Sinhala Buddhist citizens, unitary state can't be imposed when the people of other language and religions feel being treated as second class citizens. Even the Sinhalese aren't immune to this rigidity that Cyril Mathews, Junius Richards and Solomon Diazes had to re-convert themselves, and don national attire, to become leaders.
Without the protection for minorities entrenched in constitution, majority can't expect to have a free rein... 'ape aanduwa'. The guarantees should include the right to practise and prosper their language, religion and culture in their traditional homelands. Imposing anything against their will is a recipe for disaster.
If Sri Lanka wants to be a unitary state, it has to treat all its citizens equal. For that, it has to be a secular state with equal official language status for tamil. Separation of Church (or Chapters) and State is nearly impossible with Chapters carrying a lot of clout and extremist monks wielding political clubs. The eternal wish to subjugate Tamils wouldn't allow the official language status to Tamil. And the political immaturity wouldn't let the South to accept North-east as a 'Nation within Nation'.
Still, the only way that is alternative to separation is much dreaded F word.
The federalism is much dreaded in Sri Lanka for various reasons. Opponents and hardliners refuse to understand that Federalism come in different flavors and can be custom tailored to suit any country that has more than one ethnic group. It could be in the form of former Soviet republics or Quebec as a 'Nation within Nation'. Opponents cry foul that federalism is the stepping stone for separation. But, guarantees can be entrenched in constitution and endorsed by relevant outside parties and international bodies to prevent separation.
Only if there is a will!

The hidden agenda
But our unitary advocate, apart from his vision, has his own idea, a hidden agenda. The man who is hanging on the coattails of hard liners has to please them. It is not about equality. His idea is 'I will give them', opposed to 'It is their right that we can't deny'. His is an old wine in new package. His idea is based on his oft-hidden chauvinistic beliefs. Separation of North and East, with annexation of Trinco with A'pura, and nothing more than the powerless Provincial councils.
Not deviating from his predecessors, he uses all tricks in his bag to have his way.
He wanted to make his idea look like a consensus. It is nearly impossible in Sri Lanka to make all parties to agree on anything unless it is a second Pajero for MPs. Still, he called the All Party Representative Committee to solve the ethnic problem. Following the tradtion, His Majesty's Loyal Opposition opposed and opted out. Tamil National Alliance didn't get clearance from its masters in Wanni. After all, they represent Tigers, not Tamils.
Still, saner minds prevailed and came up with some sort of federal solution. Knowing that is working against his wishes, Mahinda torpedoed it by forcing his own package.
So his message to the APRC is loud and clear, like what Henry Ford said about his famous Model T car. "You can have it in any color, as long as it is black".
So APRC is free to come to any solution as long as it falls within Chinthanaya!
Now APRC is waiting for the Born-again political party to appoint its representative and go back to square one, again and again.
Whatever that was in his own package is nothing new either. It is simply the good ole PCs. If that's what he really wants, he didn't even have to call the APRC in the first place, as he could have implemented it with his executive power. It was simply a matter of buying time.
Then is the matter about the demerger of Northeast. When the JVP/JHU hardliners went to court to challenge the validity of the merger and the Supreme Court ordered the demerger, he pretended as it is about the Separation of Power between Judicial and Excecutive branches. Even though he insists till now that it is beyond his power, he never intended to challenge the petition or decision.
On one hand, he washes his hands on demerger, because it is his wish. On the other, he meddles with APRC, because it goes against his wish.
This clearly shows the hidden agenda behind his vision.

'Military' Might(y) Mahinda
Man who claimed in his chinthanaya to find a political solution through dialogue, made an about face.
Why is that somersault?
Again, it is the work of the Devil!
By picking a fight, he shattered the myth of LTTE's invincibility and exposed all his weaknesses. This gave Mahinda the required confidence that war is winnable and a solution can be found militarily. Victory in East showed that North can be won too!
Why do you have to compromise, when you can have it all?
All you have to do is drag the political process until Wanni is won and then have your own way. It will free him from implementing a political solution, rather license him to impose his will.
'Give them what you want, not what they want'!
Or so the thinking goes.
Yes, Army is inching forward and a journey of thousand miles start with the first step. The war can be won, but the questions remain.
When and at what cost?
Tigers were driven out of Jaffna and East, because they had a place to go and could live to fight another day. Now they are against the wall and have nowhere to go. When they go down, they are not going down without a fight.
Mahinda is drunk with the recent military successes, despite some heavy setbacks, and obsessed with the military solution, while paying lip service to the political solution. War might look great in the drawing board and Powerpoint presentaions, not on the frontlines. Timetable for the war is being extended all the time, to accomadate the ground realities. If he thinks military might alone can win the war, he should check with the war veteran George Bush.
The question when is important, because it has to be before the elections. A military victory could be used to ensure the majority with snap polls.
At what cost is another question that will change the support of the South and International community. Military losses might turn the south against the war while civilian losses might do the same to India and International community.
Yes. He was able to hold elections in East and win them too. He might repeat that in North as well. Having elections and installing puppets don't amount to political solutions. World has seen enough of those sham elections, with the recent example of Mugabe.

Time is running out
Sinhala hardliners are betting their farms on Mahinda, in the same way Tamil nationalists put all their eggs in one basket called Prabaharan. Many don't understand the dangers of putting all their hopes on individuals. Mahinda is not immune to suicide attacks as much as Prabaharan is not to air strikes. Mahinda can always crow, from behind the security cordons, to 'get me if you can!'. But remember, the Devil is very much into security details and any lapse can be exploited by Hell's Angels roaming the city.
In Sri Lanka, Power to the leader doesn't mean it is for life. When Srima, JR and Chandrika were holding the power with iron grips, no one ever imagined during their time that they would ever be unceremoniously dumped. Eventually, all of them were forced into political oblivion. Premadasa, too, would have met the same fate, if his presidency hadn't been cut short by LTTE.
Even today, Mahinda's power is not carved in stone. Political equation might change anytime in Sri Lanka and jilted lovers of Mahinda might flock to Ranil's harem. Even without any vision or charisma, Ranil might be elevated to power.
If someone like Mahinda can become President, then anything can happen in Sri Lanka.
Even with the ever-extending timetable for military solution, time is running out for Mahinda. Sooner of later, he will have to face parliamentary and presidential elections. With Tamils potentially behind Ranil and JVP splitted, UNP might get JVP on board along with other small parties like SLMC and CWC. New political equation might change everything, rain on his parade and smash his wildest dream of hoisting flag in Mullaitivu.
Two-term limit on presidency is another thing that will eventually start giving him nightmares.
India and international community are losing patience as their calls for talks are being ignored. While his cronies heckling the west, he beats his war drums and goes to Iran and China to procure arms. Believing in the military might, he brushes off the criticisms of outsiders, practically telling them to 'shut up!'. If the west links the aid to war and human rights, the economy will be in big trouble.
The economy can't sustain a war without end. Let alone the war, it can't even support the size of his cabinet. Prolonged war can make the economy collapse and the people who are already burdened by the gas and food prices might rise against the state. Hunger transcends races and Terrorism talk can't fill the stomachs.
All empires collapsed with their military misadventures and Emperor Mahinda's Lanka is no exception.

The Right man
Even with his flaws and faults, Mahinda is one of the boldest leaders Sri Lanka ever got. He is a man who says what he thinks and does what he says, at least almost!
Great leaders became statesmen when they had a vision to look beyond narrow mindedness of the petty politics to achieve universally accepted goals. If Mandela could make a unity government with the very people who imprisoned him, 'impossible is nothing'.
Leaders are there to lead, not to follow the flock. If Mahinda wanted he could rise above the pack and find an everlasting solution. But he is limiting himself with buying his way into power.
When Chandrika came to power, war weary Tamils put all their hopes on her believing that she will end it all. Then, they put their hopes on Ranil, rightly or wrongly, but weren't allowed to vote. But Ranil is the man who torpedoed the solution package by dragging his feet. Both of them failed Tamils who put their faith in them.
After all, Mahinda didn't give them any hope. But he could have easily won their hearts and minds, if he had moved forward with the federalist proposal. That is the only way to make Tamils reject the mindless war of LTTE and win their hearts and minds.. Simply Tamils want to get on with their lives with dignity and respect.
He could have easily accepted the proposal put forward by APRC and washed his hands like Pontius Pilatus and said he had to stick with the consensus.
Yes, all hell will break loose and Dynamic Duo will bark at India and West and blame them for conspiring to break up our Mother Lanka. Vocal minority will always be there, but before UNP cries 'Sell-out', Mahinda can always throw that proverbial ball in India's courts to get Ranil on board to amend the constitution.
He could win more Tamils with his federalism idea than the hardliners he loses with the proposal. With 'an offer Tamils can't refuse', he could get the blessing of international community and India to pressure Ranil to accept it. Or at least, it will expose Ranil what the real man he is.
And LTTE would have no choice but to join the party. Or could be arm-twisted by India, once and for all, to join.
It's all upto him now. Bringing a territory under control is way much easier than keeping it as we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan. War is not about winning territories. It is about winning the hearts and minds of the people living there. Yes, Presidential advisors in White House promised that Iraqis would welcome US Forces with roses!

What the country needs from him is the wisdom of King Solomon who was wise enough to give the baby to the right mother without splitting it, not that of legendary village chief Mathana Muththa who cut the calf's head to save the pot and then smashed the pot to get the head out.

P.S:
1. Remnants of colonialism still insist on Sirs and His Excellencies. West did away with that and stick to Mr.Presidents and Prime Ministers. Even in the internet age, in our countries, making fun of state heads is verboten, as we saw in Thailand and Turkey. So calling a President 'dude' might call for some White van activities. The title is just a play on words of the movie title 'Dude, where is my car?' in which two 'stoned' dudes waking up to find their car gone and embarking on a trek to find it. Mahinda's roadmap to peace is not much different from those 'stoned' dudes' mission. (Besides, doesn't that publicly-'stoned' dude, Mervin, still continue in his cabinet?)
2. Author's significant other, who could pass off as sinhalese with the accent and appearance, was gracious enough to provide the socialist slogan 'Mother is giving two measure rice, come closer'. Your truly's proficiency in sinhala language is only limited to the point of knowing the phrase 'gaanda eppa'. Armed with this vital knowledge, author took an oath to his master that he will use it only for self defence purposes. Bring the White vans On!